Entries from January 2008

31 January 2008

Really cool: Dopplr Raumzeitgeist 2007

Dopplr is not a service. It's a pretty and fun toy that the Dopplr folks built for all of us to play with. And while we play with it, they get to play with it some more.

They've just published the Raumzeitgeist (see quote below), leading to a lovely image of where Dopplrs have been (heavily European and North American).

Raumzeitgeist

For me, the scary thing is that HEL-LHR was a top route (gosh, how many times did I do that one?) and Finland was in the top ten destination countries (albeit, 10th).

Go see more interesting tidbits on their site (link below).

Link: Dopplr Blog » Dopplr Raumzeitgeist 2007: Where we went last year:

Zeitgeist of course means “Spirit of the times”. You’re probably familiar with Google’s wonderful ‘zeitgeist’ report they publish annually, reflecting culture in what people were searching for that year.

“Raumzeitgeist” translates literally as “Space Time Spirit” and that’s precisely what we’ve got here. It’s about where we, the users of Dopplr, travelled through space and time on our little planet last year…
Jan 31, 2008 2:11:45 PM | The Narrative

links for 2008-01-31

Jan 31, 2008 7:18:01 AM

IDC is forecasting single-digit handset market growth in '08

Wow, that's harsh. The last few years' growth has been over 10%, mostly above 20%, per year.

But, we've known that it couldn't last. I mean, in the next few years, anyone who wants a phone will have one. Then what?

I had a discussion with a friend of mine who is an investor. His analysts watch the ASP and number of devices sold as a gauge for the health of the industry. The problem is that looking at those number are enough if these companies were only in devices and that the device market still had more to go (like the PC market).

Alas, this is a market quite different from others. I remember seeing presentations back in 2002 about how the pone market would soon be like the watch market - saturated and stable.

But, at least for my company, we've been trying to go beyond the device. Indeed, the latest big upheaval was all about focusing on services.

So, my comment to my friend is that numbers of devices sold and ASP are not longer the main indicator for Nokia. As Nokia heads deeper into services (though along the way fusing services with mobiles), analysts need to look at other indicators, such as Web service competitors, mobile offering from other services, and even devices from services, to gauge the future of the company. My challenge to my friend (and part of the reason he initiated the discussion) was that his analysts need to get their heads out of device numbers, parameters, and specs and more into the internet-fueled services world.

Link: IDC: Single-digit handset market growth in '08 | CNET News.com:

"Over the last three years, growth in the industry during the holiday quarter has fluctuated from 18.0 percent to 30.0 percent, and this past quarter we saw it drop to 11.6 percent," IDS senior analyst Ryan Reith said in the statement.

"The expectation that the market would maintain the level of growth it saw over the last three years was unrealistic. We expect growth to be in the single digits throughout 2008, and most likely for years to follow."

During 2007, 1.144 billion cell phones were sold worldwide, 12.4 percent more than a year earlier.
Jan 31, 2008 7:00:23 AM | Strategy

Fjord designing sweet things for Barcelona World Mobile Congress

I was over at Fjord's Helsinki office, visiting Christian, who was in town. He pointed out that Fjord is going to have a booth at MWC and that they will be having a chef, David Royer, from Chef à Domicile in Helsinki, on hand making some cool sweet things specifically designed by Royer and Fjord for this event.

Ha! This is _so_ something Christian and gang would think up. Food and design and mobile and user experience in one place.

Someone please get a picture or video and send me the link.

(image from email invitation from Fjord)

Picture 3-4

Jan 31, 2008 5:24:46 AM | Announcements, Innovation

28 January 2008

links for 2008-01-28

Jan 28, 2008 7:18:13 AM

27 January 2008

Venter's team takes the next step toward custom-built organisms

The biology maverick, Craig Venter, has rapidly taken the next step in creating custom organisms (link below to news article).

Recently, his team managed to test if they could replace a genome in a bacteria with one of their choosing. Now they took the next step and stitched together a whole genome.

He's taking the right first steps. But, just keep in mind that there are many intermediate steps in what he is doing. He's using existing organisms to help him build and grow the sequences he needs, something done in labs all the time.

That's fine. I don't think his goal is some purist ideal of creating a synthetic organism from scratch. I think his goal is to be able to create an organism that does exactly as he wants it. Hence, the first step was being able to prove he could hi-jack the whole machinery of a cell by replacing the genome. Next, he then creates a completely synthetic genome, based on an existing sequence, but with 'watermarks' and some deletions (for control reason). Which is what he's done now.

I think his next step is to create 1) larger and larger genomes; 2) a set of lab organisms based on synthetic genomes to be used as a foundation for creating products (whatever they may be).

Heh, once again, this guy is radically changing the face of biology.

Link: Genome stitched together by hand : Nature News:

The genome for the pathogenic bacterium Mycoplasma genitalium was made in the laboratory by Hamilton Smith and his colleagues at the J. Craig Venter Institute in Rockville, Maryland. The genome has 582,970 of the fundamental building blocks of DNA, called nucleotide bases, making it more than a factor of ten longer than the previous-longest stretch of genetic material created by chemical means.
Jan 27, 2008 11:07:25 AM | Innovation, Science, Strategy

Paul Saffo on the Rules of Forecasting

Saffo to me was always some sort of weird wizard who thought and saw differently than others. I've met folks who channel the future, and it's always wondrous and bewildering.

Saffo gave a Long Now seminar recently and here (link below) is the summary (alas, I am way way behind on listening or watching them).

A few things here I'd like to throw at the Singularity Techno-Optomists.

Rules bandied about in Saffo's talk:

  • Wild cards sensitize us to surprise.
  • Change is never linear. (one discontinuity can derail your favourite singular optimism)
  • Look for indicators- things that don’t fit.
  • Look back twice as far.
  • Cherish failure.
  • Be indifferent.
  • Assume you are wrong. And forecast often.
  • Embrace uncertainty.

Go listen to it.

Liunk: Long Views » Blog Archive » Paul Saffo, “Embracing Uncertainty - the secret to effective forecasting”:

Rules of Forecasting
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)

Jan 27, 2008 8:54:06 AM | Innovation, Long Now, Strategy

26 January 2008

links for 2008-01-26

Jan 26, 2008 7:18:12 AM

The Coral Reef is sick: Twitter is now Stumblr.

Shel Israel is a long time veteran, on the leading edge of internet services. As a big Twitter user, he's written an open letter to the Twitter team, speaking for the users, pointing out the precarious position Twitter is moving themselves into as they start having prime-time outages.

Evan is a sly dog who knows well the ups and downs of a start-up. I think he _has_ been honest and open with his thinking on a wide range of entrepreneurial desires and decisions.

Yet, the coral reef is sick. Evan and Biz and Jack need to get back on track, not pull a Jaiku,* and grow-up by setting Twitter on a solid financial path.

Link: [via @alexdc]: Global Neighbourhoods: An Open Letter to the Twitter Guys:

To: Evan Williams & Biz Stone
RE: Fix it before we nix it

*Hm, with Jaiku and Twitter stumbling in the past few months, now is the time for the next service to come and pounce on these grumbling networks of friends and help them migrate en masse.

Jan 26, 2008 5:02:35 AM | Strategy, The Narrative

25 January 2008

Very frank CEOs

As part of my new job, I need to get back into the world of, ugh, corporate blogs.

Well, seems like things have moved pretty far since I was watching the scene back in 2005.

For example, this post from Johnathan Schwartz is quite well written and insightful and not what you would expect from a CEO of a large company who just spent $1B on an acquisition.

Link: Jonathan Schwartz's Blog:

In a vortex. That's the only way to describe the past thirty days, during which we closed out our second quarter, and put together the transaction to acquire MySQL. How'd it all start?

And then there's GoDaddy CEO Bob Parsons. Can you imagine Nokia's OPK writing posts like this?

Link: Super Bowl Ad rejected! Fox: "Beaver" is verboten! Hot candids of Danica & Candice.

Last week, FOX network rejected Go Daddy's Super Bowl ad because an actor referred to a beaver – a replica beaver that was, in fact, being portrayed – as a “beaver.” We were told that under no circumstance could we use that word, and if we didn’t say the word “beaver,” the ad would be approved.

Heh.

Jan 25, 2008 5:47:35 AM | The Narrative

24 January 2008

Nice quarter for the company

Nokia just announced their quarterly earnings. Not bad.

What was astounding, as usual, was the scale of sales. Cameras - 200 million? Wow.

Link: Nokia Q4 2007 Net Sales of EUR 15.7 Billion, EPS of EUR 0.47 (EUR 0.47 Excluding Special Items): PRNewswire Business News - MSN Money:

In converged devices, according to Nokia estimates, the total industry volume reached approximately 122 million units in 2007, compared to an estimated 80 million units in 2006. Nokia's own converged device volumes in 2007 grew to 60.5 million units, compared to 39.0 million units in 2006. In 2007, Nokia was the world's largest manufacturer of cameras and music enabled devices, selling approximately 200 million camera devices and approximately 146 million music enabled devices. Nokia shipped approximately 38 million Nokia Nseries devices and approximately 7 million Nokia Eseries devices during 2007.
Jan 24, 2008 8:23:10 AM | The Narrative

links for 2008-01-24

Jan 24, 2008 7:17:57 AM

23 January 2008

links for 2008-01-23

Jan 23, 2008 7:17:55 AM

21 January 2008

links for 2008-01-21

Jan 21, 2008 7:17:23 AM

Facebook is a persistent Julie McCoy

I was trying to figure out why I can't seem to get into Facebook. Now I think I know why.

I don't like how Facebook is an annoying persistent overly intrusive Julie McCoy.

For those not in the know, Julie McCoy was the activity director on the TV show 'The Love Boat'. As activity director, her job was to get people to mingle (and, apparently, fall in love).

Well, most of the Facebook apps that I've seen or been invited to join have been gimmicky like a cheezy-activities director. Also, all, All, ALL of them seem to make it way easy spam anyone I have ever sent an email to, like a client or some unknown sucker on an organization mailing list whom I do not even know.

<dripping sarcasm>Wow. That's proper social etiquette.</dripping sarcasm>

I understand that Facebook wants to be the electricity that fuels all these cool apps (oooh, oodles of comments there, too). But, really, they should have some standards.

And don't give me this 'openness' krap. Facebook shouldn't mar their brand with krappy stuff.

Example: If I said that I was going to build a pork-fat rendering plant across your street, you'd freak out and wave the zoning laws in front of my face, right?

Same here.

I never used Facebook 'in the day'. But, I spoke with a lot of users early last year (pre-platform) and all they spoke about was connecting to people through various forms of messaging, direct human to human communication.

And these post-platform apps don't even act as useful social objects that trigger conversations, either.

I've been fighting starry-eyed Web 2.0 wannabes for a long time to get them to realize that the wildness at Facebook is not something to emulate. Sure, openness is great, but let's not let the developers build willy-nilly and mess with a brand we are working hard to build and keep.

Zoning laws can be helpful and stimulate, too. I made the mistake of calling it 'curating'. That smacked too much of untouchable objects behind a window. A colleague suggested 'steward', promoting the good and discouraging the krap.

What do you think?

Jan 21, 2008 5:02:00 AM | Innovation, Strategy, The Narrative

20 January 2008

links for 2008-01-20

Jan 20, 2008 7:17:22 AM

19 January 2008

Aggregating your social network - a list of services

Ah, a nice day browsing ideas on the Web, taking me forward and backwards.

I found this nice list (below) from last summer on a bunch of services (many I knew already) for helping users manage multiple social networks. These services do it in different ways, which is good, since it samples the possibility space for me.

Yeah, my head had been deep in this area for a long time and I'm now particularly interested in one facet of it (almost frantic about it).

Alas, the most I will be able to do is pass on the thinking to the Ovi.com team as I wrap things up (hopefully this week).

Link: 20 Ways To Aggregate Your Social Networking Profiles:

In an inspired blog post, Jason Kottke said that social networks aren’t helping us organize; since all of them require different credentials to log in, they’re just adding to the noise. He just might be up to something there. It’s getting harder and harder to remember all those logins, passwords, and most importantly to remember which of your friends are using what network.

Social network aggregators is a relatively new breed of applications which try to consolidate all your various social networking profiles into one, with varying success. Let’s check out 20 biggest competitors in this field.
Jan 19, 2008 9:05:13 AM | Strategy, Tips & Tricks

15 January 2008

links for 2008-01-15

Jan 15, 2008 7:19:10 AM

14 January 2008

It's not infoglut on my mind, but infoswim (or something like that)

After a deep conversation with my dad on semantic web stuff, he pointed me to a site (of some guys he works with) that had this quote (below, pulled from another site to give it more - context).

Link: Managing Information: Infoglut:

"Information overload is not a function of the volume of information out there," he says. "It's a gap between the volume of information and the tools we have to assimilate that information into useful knowledge."

But, it is really not infoglut that is on my mind, but how we can revel in the glut, navigate it, annotate it, contribute to it, and extract knowledge from it to generate new knowledge.

A lot of thoughts on this in my backlog of posts. I hope I can get them up during my lifetime...

Jan 14, 2008 4:56:13 PM | Science, Strategy

12 January 2008

links for 2008-01-12

Jan 12, 2008 7:18:08 AM

11 January 2008

Where you at?

Funny video. [via Peter B]

Jan 11, 2008 11:09:15 AM | Extras, The Narrative, Tips & Tricks

09 January 2008

links for 2008-01-09

Jan 9, 2008 7:17:31 AM

07 January 2008

Ah, a new conference schedule

It's a new year and I am looking at my Spring 2008 conference schedule.

This year I had no interest in CES or Macworld. I did want to go to Digital Lifestyle Day. But, again, I could not make it due to conflict and running out of travel days (watching myself).

I did find out today that I am more likely to hit other conferences, though now my _wife's_ schedule is conflicting. Bugger.

I do think I can make LIFT and will bug Laurent as soon as I know. And I thought I could make World Mobile Congress, but may have to pass. Ugh.

Not the same shutout as last year, but not so different yet. Hm.

Link [from last year's whining]: Lifeblog: There goes the conference schedule:

I wanted to go to CES.

I wanted to go to Macworld.

I wanted to go to DLD.

I wanted to go to LIFT.

But I can't.

Long story.
Jan 7, 2008 12:09:11 PM | Announcements, General

links for 2008-01-07

Jan 7, 2008 7:18:10 AM

05 January 2008

Karma - it's a circle of social networking life kinda thing

Twitter Karma allows you to get a view as to the reciprocity of the following and who is has posted recently, providing a tool to see who is participating or lurking or what (see link to creators post on it, below).

There are some folks, each with their own reason, who use social network tools to link up with as many folks as allowable. For me, each social network tool I use has a purpose that determines the number of connections, activity level, and shared material.

As you probably know, I am very particular as to who gets on my Twitter stream. As my Twitter profile says, 'Birds of a feather twitter together - you're in, or you're out.', meaning you need to participate to remain on my list and that I am quite careful in adding new folks, no matter how wonderful they are. Hence, my list of Tweeps is small.

I suppose it all points to karma. In as many days, that word has popped up twice in relation to folks participating in a social setting. I suppose it's a 'you reap what you sow'. And I think this concept is strongly related to the 'me and mine' of services such as Vox, Jaiku, and Twitter (we see it a lot in our research, too). It's related to mutual grooming, to the building of trust, to social assurances.

Link [via Alex] Dossy's Blog: Need help managing your Twitter Karma?:

So, what is it? The other day, @StephAgresta said, "Twitter desperately needs page navigation on followers / following list. Also sort functionality by type (reciprocated or not) is a must." I suggested a simple mashup that implements this and started hacking on it. Three days later, it has enough functionality that Stephanie said she thinks I should release it publically.
Jan 5, 2008 10:59:02 AM | Strategy, The Narrative

03 January 2008

links for 2008-01-03

Jan 3, 2008 7:17:35 AM

01 January 2008

David Byrne on the Music Business

I've been thoroughly enjoying the spasms of change the music industry is suffering these past few years. To me, it's a proxy for so many other media and publishing models that have grown in the past few centuries who are also under similar pressures (books and newspapers being the ones closer to my domain).

David Byrne wrote a great article in Wired (see link below) on the different models the music business has adopted to deal with the decrease in the price of production, distribution, and marketing, and the digitization of music and artist challenges for more control.

The article provides examples of successful artists for each business model and is very even-handed, not stressing any over the other. I like it that he points out the value of performances, partly because that is what being a musician is about, but also because it can also be a good source of revenue if done right. And, having been involved in producing and performing in different types of events, I've always wondered why musicians didn't try to rely more on shows.

Byrne also gives some advice about what is important, regardless of the business model - keeping the rights to your creations ("This, for a songwriter, is your pension plan"). Something to keep in mind in the world of creative works.

The quote below is the closing of the article.

Link: [via Stuart Mudie]: David Byrne's Survival Strategies for Emerging Artists — and Megastars:

No single model will work for everyone. There's room for all of us. Some artists are the Coke and Pepsi of music, while others are the fine wine — or the funky home-brewed moonshine. And that's fine. I like Rihanna's "Umbrella" and Christina Aguilera's "Ain't No Other Man." Sometimes a corporate soft drink is what you want — just not at the expense of the other thing. In the recent past, it often seemed like all or nothing, but maybe now we won't be forced to choose.

Ultimately, all these scenarios have to satisfy the same human urges: What do we need music to do? How do we visit the land in our head and the place in our heart that music takes us to? Can I get a round-trip ticket?
Jan 1, 2008 3:25:24 PM | Innovation, Strategy, The Narrative

links for 2008-01-01

Jan 1, 2008 7:17:14 AM

charlie

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